Game 5 of the 2023 Eastern Conference finals is set for Thursday evening in prime time. The Boston Celtics host the Miami Heat at TD Garden, with the Celtics facing elimination. Boston is trailing 3-1 in the best-of-seven series, including two home losses. The Heat can advance to the 2023 NBA Finals with a victory, though the Celtics responded well in a double-digit Game 4 win on Tuesday. Gabe Vincent (ankle) is listed as questionable to play for Miami.
Ti-off is at 8:30 p.m. ET in Boston. Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as the 8.5-point home favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 215.5 in the latest Heat vs. Celtics odds. Before making any Celtics vs. Heat picks, you need to see the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Celtics and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Celtics vs. Heat:
- Celtics vs. Heat spread: Celtics -8.5
- Celtics vs. Heat over/under: 215.5 points
- Celtics vs. Heat money line: Celtics -320, Heat +250
- MIA: The Heat are 21-26-1 against the spread in road games
- BOS: The Celtics are 28-22 against the spread in home games
- Celtics vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Why the Heat can cover
Miami’s defense has placed continuous pressure on Boston throughout the series, leading to the 3-1 advantage. The Heat are giving up fewer than 1.12 points per possession in the postseason and holding the Celtics to shooting efficiency (57.7%) well below their established levels. Miami leads the playoffs in averaging 19.9 points per game off of created turnovers, and opponents are averaging only 45.3 points in the paint per game.
On offense, Jimmy Butler leads the way with 29.9 points on 50.5% shooting in the playoffs, and Miami is scoring more than 1.19 points per possession in the series against Boston. That includes a 61.6% true shooting mark and 50% shooting from the field against the Celtics, with the Heat committing only 12.5 turnovers per game in the postseason. See which team to pick here.
Why the Celtics can cover
Boston’s Game 4 recipe reflected its season-long excellence in many ways. The Celtics scored 1.22 points per possession against the Heat on Tuesday, shooting 51% from the field and 40% from 3-point range. Boston also generated 28 assists with only 10 turnovers, and the Celtics were able to create and convert efficient looks throughout the game. The Celtics finished in the top three of the NBA in offensive efficiency (117.3 points per 100 possessions) during the regular season, and Boston is scoring 1.17 points per possession in the playoffs.
The Celtics also lead the postseason with a 60.0% true shooting mark, and Boston has more than twice as many assists (24.9 per game) than turnovers (12.4 per game) in playoff games. Boston has a pair of legitimate stars in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, both of whom averaged more than 26 points per game in the regular season. In addition, the Celtics held the Heat to just 1.05 points per possession with 8-32 shooting from 3-point range on defense in Game 4. See which team to pick here.
How to make Celtics vs. Heat picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 220 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s NBA playoff picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Celtics, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Heat spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that is 72-38 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.