Fears of Russian winter push in Ukraine ahead of Putin elections in March – live

Russia will likely seek to regain the initiative in Ukraine in a military push over the harsh winter period, analysts say, ahead of presidential elections in March expected to see Vladimir Putin remain in the Kremlin until at least 2030.

After a year dug in among a heavily fortified front line in order to push back Kyiv’s counteroffensive efforts, the Institute for the Study of War think-tank suggests Russia is now launching attacks along the vast front line and is seeking to regain the initiative in its 22-month war.

However the think-tank is sceptical about the success of any winter push by Moscow, and notes that, in something of a role reversal, Ukraine is using the harsher weather to build its own fortifications in parts of the front line – “thereby conserving manpower and resources for future offensive efforts”.

“Difficult weather conditions have likely slowed the rate of Russian advance along much of the frontline, increased Russian losses, and further damaged the morale of Russian soldiers,” the think-tank said.

It added: “The establishment of Ukrainian tactical defensive positions will most likely strengthen Ukrainian forces’ capabilities to defend against ongoing and costly Russian attacks with fewer forces of their own and/or while suffering fewer casualties in the defence.

“Furthermore, the establishment of Ukrainian tactical defensive positions may become a springboard for future Ukrainian offensive operations where and when Ukrainian forces choose to re-initiate offensive operations.”

Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been missing for three days following a “a serious health-related incident”, his associates have warned – just as Vladimir Putin launches his presidential re-election campaign.

Allies of the Kremlin critic – who has been sentenced to more than 30 years on what he says are politically motivated charges – had this week stepped up a campaign to undermine popular support for Mr Putin and the war in Ukraine ahead of the March 2024 presidential elections.

And days earlier, Russian prosecutors brought fresh charges against Mr Navalny, in what the 47-year-old said was part of the Kremlin’s desire to “initiate a new criminal case against me every three months”.

But Mr Navalny failed to show up at scheduled court hearings this week, according to Maria Pevchikh, chair of his Anti-Corruption Foundation, who said he had been “missing for three days now”.

Some Russian athletes will be allowed to compete at the 2024 Paris Olympics, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) said on Friday.

The decision has removed the option of a blanket ban over the invasion of Ukraine. The IOC’s decision confirms moves it started one year ago to reintegrate Russia and its military ally Belarus into global sports.

Eight Russians and three from Belarus are among 4,600 athletes worldwide who have so far qualified for the Summer Games.

Russia sent a team of 335 athletes to the Tokyo Olympics held in 2021 but only dozens are likely to compete in Paris. Russia remains banned from team sports.

Blocking a package of support for Ukraine would be a “Christmas present” for Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, Lord David Cameron has warned after Senate Republicans opposed a multi-billion-dollar aid bill.

The Foreign Secretary urged allies to rally around Kyiv, describing the response to the conflict as “the great test for our generation” as he delivered a speech at the Aspen security conference in Washington DC on Thursday.

The US Congress failed to pass a 110 billion dollar (£88 billion) package of wartime funding for Ukraine and Israel as well as other national security priorities.

David Cameron has called for 350 billion dollars (£278 billion) in frozen Russian bank accounts to be used to fund the Ukrainian war effort.

The UK foreign secretary said there is a strong argument for seizing frozen Russian assets and using them to rebuild Ukraine, during a visit to the US.

“Instead of just freezing that money, let’s take that money, spend it on rebuilding Ukraine and that is, if you like, a downpayment on reparations that Russia will one day have to pay for the illegal invasion that they’ve undertaken,” Mr Cameron said. “I’ve looked at all the arguments and so far, I haven’t seen anything that convinces me this is a bad idea.”

The statue of a of a Red Army commander was dismantled by authorities in Kyiv on Saturday.

Ukrainian officials pressed on with a campaign to remove Soviet-era monuments in an effort to erase all traces of Russian rule amid a full-scale invasion by Kremlin troops, now nearing its two-year mark.

Municipal workers on Saturday carefully hoisted the hulking statue of Mykola Shchors, a Soviet field commander during the Russian Civil War, off its pedestal.

“We need to educate our youth so that they know our history,” said Zoya Kobyliukova, 82, an onlooker who described communism as a “utopia” that led to many people being killed.

“They’re doing the right thing to be taking him down.”

Ukrainian figures have suggested that 338,120 Russian soldiers have died since the war began last Febraury.

The latest numbers also say over 10,000 armoured combat vehicles have been destroyed, while 5,632 Russian tanks have reportedly been eliminated.

Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been missing for three days following a “a serious health-related incident”, his associates have warned – just as Vladimir Putin launches his presidential re-election campaign.

Allies of the Kremlin critic – who has been sentenced to more than 30 years on what he says are politically motivated charges – had this week stepped up a campaign to undermine popular support for Mr Putin and the war in Ukraine ahead of the March 2024 presidential elections.

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Ukrainian President Zelensky is visiting Argentina in hopes that he will win the support of the global south.

Zelenskyy’s trip, announced on the Telegram messaging app, will focus on Ukraine‘s longstanding bid to secure the support of countries in the Global South in Ukraine‘s 21-month-old war against Russia.

The Ukrainian president said he had met the prime minister of the West African country of Cape Verde, Ulisses Correia e Silva, en route to Argentina and thanked him for “condemning Russian aggression” and supporting Ukrainian initiatives.

The trip marks his first trup to Latin American, where he is to attend the inauguration of new Argentine President Javier Milei.

Kyiv has been trying to build ties with African, Asian and Latin American governments, but has found its support for Israel at odds with the positions of some of those countries.

A few months ago, a Ukrainian official posted a video of a man who had been captured while fighting for Russia.

The man was neither trained by Russia nor a resident of that country, and he had no direct stake in the Ukraine war. Yet he had flown over 4,000km to serve in “one of the Russian Airborne Forces brigade”, the video said.